It Wasn't Me: Yemen's Conspiracy Theories (1/2)

Part 1 of 2

As Arabs, we love conspiracy theories. Everything is far more exciting if there is a mysterious plot to unravel. Not to mention, it's easier to abandon all responsibilities if it there a “scheme” in place and a "mastermind" behind it. In Yemen's conspiracy theories, we are the victims, the injured party, the biggest loser, and the subject of all interest. Despite being inherently realists, we exhibit bursts of borderline personality and a hint of narcissistic tendencies. When it comes to conspiracy narratives, some are outright outrageous, others are meticulously constructed (and over time become self-fulling prophecies), and only a handful are fathomable explanations.

This blog post lists some of the “conspiracy theories” circulating in Yemen. It has no interest in debunking them nor in unraveling the truth that lies behind them.

• About a year ago, right after the NASA Rover landed on Mars, Yemeni media outlets published one of the most dangerous theories yet. Our (Yemeni) high-tech investigative techniques revealed that NASA was hiding a big secret from us. We were told that NASA had physical proof, for years, that Lailat al Qadar exists and they shamelessly hid it from us. Apparently NASA, a US agency responsible for aerospace research invested a load of their time and money to trackback this day with technology as advanced as the space Rovers. The biggest shock was that the article assumed that Yemenis needed NASA to prove it...   

Lailat al Qadr, literally translates to Night of Destiny, and is the night that the first verses of the Quran were revealed to the prophet Muhammed when he encountered the angel Jibreel (Gabriel). Traditionally, it is believed to be on one of the last nights of Ramadan and there is no specific date for it.

• Israel, one of the most notorious countries in the Middle East, is always the subject of several conspiracy theories. Overtime, it became very convenient to blame anything on them. Once the Arab Spring started, former President Saleh gave a statement that attributed the Arab Spring to a vague Israeli/American blueprint to destroy the Middle East. While many Yemenis are innately susceptible to these kind of theories, unfortunately for Saleh, it was just too little too late!  
• Accompanying Saleh’s long shot, an article surfaced that Israel finally devised a weapon more catastrophic than any nuclear bomb. They finally succeeded in creating a special gas that can be inserted into a bomb. The secret is once the bomb is dropped in any part of the world, the gas only kills Muslims. (not to mention the Israeli belts distributed all over Yemen to make our men infertile)

• Speaking about gas, fellow tweeter Ibrahim Muthana once wrote that a taxi driver tried to explain his lethargy. The taxi driver revealed that the US has been actively spraying Yemenis with a secret gas to keep us tired and unproductive... (Qat and malnutrition didn't come to mind..)

• While Yemen witnessed (and continues to witness) several campaigns against women, one of the most important issues that Yemenis continue to worry about is the term “gender”.  Most Yemenis (men and women) continue to misuse the term and substitute it for “equality”. Regardless of this lack of understanding, a university dropout warned us about the dangers of “gender”. If “gender” succeeds in being a component of the National Dialogue, then it will only legalize homosexuality and adultery. At first, it is easy to dismiss such ramblings; but after serious pondering, you begin to see the light. Why? Of course! Enhancing Women’s access to education is about enlightenment... and enlightenment makes us think of the Italian Renaissance... and the renaissance is about rebirth...rebirth coincided with secularism...Therefore, if women are educated then it must mean that Yemenis will abandon their faith . Just think about it! all these literate women... reading about adultery...how gay!

• Just when you think that most conspiracy theories are generated by fundamentalists, I have to end this streak with another Arab Spring Theory. It is not a secret that the protests in Tunisia inspired the rest of the Middle East nor is it a secret that for at least a decade most Arabs living under repressive/authoritarian regimes preferred Islamist parties over other political parties for their political organization and service delivery. When the structured Islamist parties began winning votes across the Arab world, and most notably when the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) won the elections in Egypt, it became apparent to liberals everywhere that the Arab Spring is an Islamist ploy to secure power. The truth is; Islamists got bored of waiting for their turn to rule. For months, even years, men from all over the Arab World gathered (perhaps in London?) to plan a revolt that would lead to the world domination. The protests in Turkey may appear contradictory to this theory, but rest assured, it is part of a bigger plan...

• Yemen witnesses blackouts on a daily basis. Once in a blue moon, the electricity stays on. Rather than enjoying the 260 year old technology, we worry about the consequences of this abrupt reward. While electricity blackouts are not a laughing matter, many Yemenis feel better blaming such misfortune on 'Afash. Yes, it is all the fault of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Even the tribes and AQAP agree. It's all him. He always left Yemenis in the dark, literally.

• The radical branch of the Southern secessionists in Yemen blamed the downfall of YSP on a few Northern individuals in 1986. While these radical thinkers refuse to join the National Dialogue, the Northerners are worried about something far worse: Payback. 

President Hadi is from Abyan (South of Yemen) and the Majority of his government and Military appointments were for fellow Southerners. Unfortunately, a southern majority government didn't contain Hirak but it sure worried Northerners. They believe that - and Journalist Adam Baron describes it - president Hadi is a "closet separatist". Yemen is in a mess right now and just when everything gets worse (hard to imagine), president Hadi and his government will smoothly transition to rule the South. The Southerners would enjoy heaven (Aden) and the Northerners will be abandoned without any leadership or resources.

End of Part 1, more in Part 2

Secession for South Yemen would Lead to Catastrophe

Article Published in The National, you can read it here.


Yemen's "national dialogue" finally began one week ago today, after several deferrals. The agenda is dominated by the "southern issue", the question of southern secession.

The Southern Movement, commonly referred to as Hirak, is already expressing its dissatisfaction with the dialogue. Hirak has 85 seats in the dialogue assembly, but several factions within the movement said in a joint statement on March 21 that those 85 representatives do not properly delineate Hirak's demands.

Any scenario other than full Hirak participation in the talks will threaten the nation's security and will ultimately cost many Yemenis their lives. The national dialogue will be squandered if Hirak's entire leadership is not on board.

Last month alone the government reported four deaths due to clashes between the Hirak and local authorities in the South.

On February 23 the president, Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi - originally from Dhakeen, a southern village - made his first visit to Aden, to acknowledge Hirak's grievances.

After the 1994 civil war, former president Ali Abdullah Saleh consistently overlooked the concerns of the South, as a form of revenge. There was talk of secession even then, and the movement gained momentum from 2007 to 2011, but was never unified enough to pose a real threat to Yemen's unity.

But now Hirak's fragmented leadership is a problem for national unity: if the factions cannot speak and act together, the dialogue will dissolve and chaos will follow.

Secession would not provide Hirak's divided factions with the independence they seek; rather, it would result in the creation of several weak regional regimes, in constant conflict with each other.

Yemen's government should have addressed legitimate southern concerns long ago. Now the issue will not be settled easily or quickly.

The present weak agreement among Hirak factions is the product of an interim alliance. The only thing uniting all of them is their common goal of secession, and their common enemy, the central government. Hirak members consider the South to be under occupation.

The southern proverb "he removes an onion, and grows garlic" refers to an apparent change that actually yields the same results. Southern power struggles have persisted through deceptive leadership changes, and this pattern is a good indicator of what the future would hold after secession.

The South has been divided since the days of the British occupation, which saw power struggles in Hadhramout, Abyan and Lahj. These internal rivalries continued after independence in 1967.

Over the next two decades, the South, as its own state, cycled through six presidents. Some transfers were peaceful while others were bloody, but all of them, while disguised as ideological or political, were driven by tribal politics and personal ambition.

In June 1969, a peaceful coup led to the removal of military leaders but also changed the regional balance of high-office-holders. And in January 1986, when internal "ideological" divisions occurred within Yemen's Socialist Party (YSP), several regions associated with the losing faction suffered losses; other regions gained influence based on their tribal loyalties.

These divisions still exist. Most current Hirak leaders were members of the YSP in the old southern People's Democratic Republic of Yemen. For these men the YSP served as a vehicle to power, and now Hirak does the same thing.

Personal conflicts still boil under the surface, damaging Hirak's leadership. No one in Hirak is capable of producing a transitional plan that can win wide support.

If secession occurs and the northern government is out of the way, a few southern leaders would opt for the creation of smaller political units, rather than consolidating the South.

Individuals such as the southern Islamist leader Tariq Al Fadhli would hope to restore their former reigns. For them, secession would be a golden opportunity.

Some within Hirak openly yearn for a return to "the old days", while others are still speaking in vague terms.

It is only a matter of time before individuals from powerful families claim authority based on their genealogy, especially if they manage to secede.

Beyond the old sultanates, there are some who would prefer a tribal emirate, another form of dynasty. And in the past few years, political Islam has gained momentum. Those who identify the most with their religious ideology are likely to demand the creation of Islamic caliphates or strict implementation of Islamic Shariah.

With a central government out of the picture, AQAP and Ansar Al Shariah could grip parts of the South.

The southern population is culturally diverse. New villages have sprung up, and older ones have expanded. Distinct identities do not exist anymore. But there are many who want distinct areas to control.

Taken together, all this means that after secession the South would have several inefficient micro-states, some of them strongly divided by prejudice and class distinctions.

Mr Hadi's government may still convince the remainder of southern Hirak to join the dialogue. Given the flexible nature of the talks, more seats can be assigned to other Hirak factions. But at the same time all elements of Hirak must consider their options and participate in the dialogue if they truly seek genuine "liberation".

For the South's sake, Hirak must submit to the dialogue and reach a settlement. The idea that secession will solve the South's problems is nothing but an illusion maintained by a few who seek power for themselves.

Secession would bring catastrophe. Participating in the national dialogue guarantees nothing, but it is the best alternative.




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The Southern Hirak (2007-2013)

Part 2

By 2013, the Southern Hirak became a movement that no one can ignore, even though the government was trying to do just that. Lives were lost before President Hadi went to visit the South (where he is originally from); his first visit since assuming the presidency. As of February 26, 2013, the majority of Hirak leaders are refusing to participate in the national dialogue which is only a few weeks away.

Image via Hona Hadhramout

The expanding movement in the South first used the title, Al Hirak Al Janoubi Al Silmi (Peaceful Southern Movement), in 2007. Then it was a simple movement with a distinct leadership. Presently, the Southern Hirak has too many leaders to keep track of; however, two main figures stand out; Ali Al-Beidh and Hassan Ba'oum. Ali Salim Al-Beidh is the main leader of Hirak residing outside of Yemen, and Hassan Ba'oum, Mohammed Ali Ahmed, and Nasser Al-Noubah are the main figures inside of Yemen. The problem is that these leaders do not see eye to eye. They all consider themselves the founders of the movement but the truth is some were there before others. 

Also, the leaders inside of Yemen seem a lot more legitimate since the majority of the Hirak leaders outside of Yemen were highly influential in the PDRY and in ROY (Republic of Yemen) until the Civil War of 1994. As though their interest in Hirak is aimed at restoring their glory. 

Much like the Yemeni Revolution of 2011, the Southern Hirak movement is mobilizing the youth. Ironically, none of the principal leaders are actually from that age group. 

In line with the obvious Southern discord, Southern Hirak is not the only group claiming to defend the "Southern Cause". Over the past few years, many new factions were created or evolved from previous movements. 

The problem is that many people can use the term Southern Hirak. While some maintain their peaceful standpoint, there are many radicals who are waiting for the right time to start an armed conflict. 

To understand the diversity of Hirak, one must understand that its members adhere to a wide range convections. At one end are the radicals (which includes the militants) and the other end are the moderates. The radicals are exclusivists; meaning that they reject any person with a Northern last name even if they lived in the South for decades, fought alongside the Southerners or called the South their home. As a matter of fact, some of the Northerners in the South are thought to have been spies and part of Sana'a's regime in the South. They would not accept to engage in dialogue at any cost because secession is the only viable option. In this category, the individuals are dogmatists who view the South under the full occupation of an authoritarian Northern rule. They would like to call the South of Yemen Al Janoub Al-'Arabi (The Arabian South), completely rejecting a Yemeni identity.

Within this radical branch of Hirak are several operating militias (it is also worth noting that the South is witnessing an increase in militias not affiliated with Hirak or the Southern Movement). Keeping in mind that the more radical the group, the bigger the conspiracy theory and the greater the need for armed resistance. 

At the other end of this spectrum are the moderates, who are willing to engage in dialogue. Many of them realized that the South witnessed a dramatic transformation since unity was established. Their life-styles changed, literally, over-night and only got worse after 1994. With Saleh gone, these moderates understand that some Northerners are living in the same appalling conditions as the Southerners, but they fear that South will continue to be ignored. 

The majority of the Southerners identify somewhere between these two divergent views. The Southern Hirak is becoming their cause and the more the world dismisses their grievances and the Yemeni government delays reconciliation, the worse it becomes. 

Threatened Unity: Understanding the Southern Hirak

Part 1

Image via Islamopediaonline

The Southern Movement (Al Hirak Al Janoubi) is frequently explained as a Southern separatist movement that started after Yemen's Civil War of 1994 and reinforced in 2007 when the Assembly of the People of Radfan (Jam'iyat Abna'a Radfan) proposed unifying a number of southern separatist movements to strengthen their unified goal of secession. Today, the Southern Movement is a term that fuses heterogeneous Southern factions by their intent to secede. 

The Southern Hirak members believe that they are the victims of a Northern conspiracy since the second half of the 1960s. Although the southern secessioners present their argument as an accumulation of frustrations from the past, in reality, it is a reaction to Yemen's Civil War of 1994. History reveals that many Yemenis, in the North and the South, dreamed about unity prior 1990. Songs from 1977 reveal that Yemenis coveted unity for generations. Song writer Abdulrahman Mouraid wrote;

The ancestors dream, today became certain                         حلم الجدود اليوم اصبح مؤكد
Unity, Hurray and a thousand welcome                                بالوحدة ياهلا وألف سهلا

The Southern Movement is nothing but a consequence of a faulty unification. Saleh's implemented unity became the antithesis of the unity that Yemenis longed for; instead of bringing Yemenis together, it segregated them. Since Yemen's revolution of 2011, this movement has gained momentum, however, experts are reluctant to discuss its impact on Yemen's National Dialogue that is set to take place on March 18, 2013. 

Taking a Closer Look: 
Generally, when we refer to the Southern Hirak, we mean the governorates that belonged to the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY). Many of those in the West assume that the Hirak (or demands for secession) is a recent phenomenon in Yemen that intensified with the Arab Spring. Unlike many of the Arab Spring countries, the idea of secession in the South of Yemen couldn't handle four years of unity. 

In the diagram below, I trace the most important movements that shaped the Southern Hirak as we know it today. 

As you see, the demands of the Southerners weren't born in a vacuum. Over time, the demands of these separatists evolved and they eventually claimed that they are "occupied" by the North. They protested the "Yemeni identity" as one that was forced on them. 

The year of 2006 was a pivotal year in the Southern Hirak movement. That year, a Southern man named Shamlan ran for presidency against Saleh and lost by a wide margin. Perhaps the Southerners understood that Saleh wasn't planning on changing anything soon. Saleh, being a savvy politician, picked up on that and tactfully made a spectacle of assigning a special committee to investigate the problem of the Southern lands. 

After the Civil War of 1994, some elites and officials treated the South as part of their spoils of victory. For example, prime real estate was confiscated and divided amongst them. Only in 2007, a committee made up of six people including notable members Yehya Al-Shuaibi, Saleh Ba'sourah, and Abdul Qadir Hilal concluded that at least 56 officials own illegal properties in the South. Saleh made sure to publicize that the investigation was taking place, but when he received the 500 page report, it was inexplicably disregarded. 

In Part 2: Understanding the Southern Hirak from 2007- 2013