It Wasn't Me: Yemen's Conspiracy Theories (1/2)

Part 1 of 2

As Arabs, we love conspiracy theories. Everything is far more exciting if there is a mysterious plot to unravel. Not to mention, it's easier to abandon all responsibilities if it there a “scheme” in place and a "mastermind" behind it. In Yemen's conspiracy theories, we are the victims, the injured party, the biggest loser, and the subject of all interest. Despite being inherently realists, we exhibit bursts of borderline personality and a hint of narcissistic tendencies. When it comes to conspiracy narratives, some are outright outrageous, others are meticulously constructed (and over time become self-fulling prophecies), and only a handful are fathomable explanations.

This blog post lists some of the “conspiracy theories” circulating in Yemen. It has no interest in debunking them nor in unraveling the truth that lies behind them.

• About a year ago, right after the NASA Rover landed on Mars, Yemeni media outlets published one of the most dangerous theories yet. Our (Yemeni) high-tech investigative techniques revealed that NASA was hiding a big secret from us. We were told that NASA had physical proof, for years, that Lailat al Qadar exists and they shamelessly hid it from us. Apparently NASA, a US agency responsible for aerospace research invested a load of their time and money to trackback this day with technology as advanced as the space Rovers. The biggest shock was that the article assumed that Yemenis needed NASA to prove it...   

Lailat al Qadr, literally translates to Night of Destiny, and is the night that the first verses of the Quran were revealed to the prophet Muhammed when he encountered the angel Jibreel (Gabriel). Traditionally, it is believed to be on one of the last nights of Ramadan and there is no specific date for it.

• Israel, one of the most notorious countries in the Middle East, is always the subject of several conspiracy theories. Overtime, it became very convenient to blame anything on them. Once the Arab Spring started, former President Saleh gave a statement that attributed the Arab Spring to a vague Israeli/American blueprint to destroy the Middle East. While many Yemenis are innately susceptible to these kind of theories, unfortunately for Saleh, it was just too little too late!  
• Accompanying Saleh’s long shot, an article surfaced that Israel finally devised a weapon more catastrophic than any nuclear bomb. They finally succeeded in creating a special gas that can be inserted into a bomb. The secret is once the bomb is dropped in any part of the world, the gas only kills Muslims. (not to mention the Israeli belts distributed all over Yemen to make our men infertile)

• Speaking about gas, fellow tweeter Ibrahim Muthana once wrote that a taxi driver tried to explain his lethargy. The taxi driver revealed that the US has been actively spraying Yemenis with a secret gas to keep us tired and unproductive... (Qat and malnutrition didn't come to mind..)

• While Yemen witnessed (and continues to witness) several campaigns against women, one of the most important issues that Yemenis continue to worry about is the term “gender”.  Most Yemenis (men and women) continue to misuse the term and substitute it for “equality”. Regardless of this lack of understanding, a university dropout warned us about the dangers of “gender”. If “gender” succeeds in being a component of the National Dialogue, then it will only legalize homosexuality and adultery. At first, it is easy to dismiss such ramblings; but after serious pondering, you begin to see the light. Why? Of course! Enhancing Women’s access to education is about enlightenment... and enlightenment makes us think of the Italian Renaissance... and the renaissance is about rebirth...rebirth coincided with secularism...Therefore, if women are educated then it must mean that Yemenis will abandon their faith . Just think about it! all these literate women... reading about adultery...how gay!

• Just when you think that most conspiracy theories are generated by fundamentalists, I have to end this streak with another Arab Spring Theory. It is not a secret that the protests in Tunisia inspired the rest of the Middle East nor is it a secret that for at least a decade most Arabs living under repressive/authoritarian regimes preferred Islamist parties over other political parties for their political organization and service delivery. When the structured Islamist parties began winning votes across the Arab world, and most notably when the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) won the elections in Egypt, it became apparent to liberals everywhere that the Arab Spring is an Islamist ploy to secure power. The truth is; Islamists got bored of waiting for their turn to rule. For months, even years, men from all over the Arab World gathered (perhaps in London?) to plan a revolt that would lead to the world domination. The protests in Turkey may appear contradictory to this theory, but rest assured, it is part of a bigger plan...

• Yemen witnesses blackouts on a daily basis. Once in a blue moon, the electricity stays on. Rather than enjoying the 260 year old technology, we worry about the consequences of this abrupt reward. While electricity blackouts are not a laughing matter, many Yemenis feel better blaming such misfortune on 'Afash. Yes, it is all the fault of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Even the tribes and AQAP agree. It's all him. He always left Yemenis in the dark, literally.

• The radical branch of the Southern secessionists in Yemen blamed the downfall of YSP on a few Northern individuals in 1986. While these radical thinkers refuse to join the National Dialogue, the Northerners are worried about something far worse: Payback. 

President Hadi is from Abyan (South of Yemen) and the Majority of his government and Military appointments were for fellow Southerners. Unfortunately, a southern majority government didn't contain Hirak but it sure worried Northerners. They believe that - and Journalist Adam Baron describes it - president Hadi is a "closet separatist". Yemen is in a mess right now and just when everything gets worse (hard to imagine), president Hadi and his government will smoothly transition to rule the South. The Southerners would enjoy heaven (Aden) and the Northerners will be abandoned without any leadership or resources.

End of Part 1, more in Part 2

Secession for South Yemen would Lead to Catastrophe

Article Published in The National, you can read it here.


Yemen's "national dialogue" finally began one week ago today, after several deferrals. The agenda is dominated by the "southern issue", the question of southern secession.

The Southern Movement, commonly referred to as Hirak, is already expressing its dissatisfaction with the dialogue. Hirak has 85 seats in the dialogue assembly, but several factions within the movement said in a joint statement on March 21 that those 85 representatives do not properly delineate Hirak's demands.

Any scenario other than full Hirak participation in the talks will threaten the nation's security and will ultimately cost many Yemenis their lives. The national dialogue will be squandered if Hirak's entire leadership is not on board.

Last month alone the government reported four deaths due to clashes between the Hirak and local authorities in the South.

On February 23 the president, Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi - originally from Dhakeen, a southern village - made his first visit to Aden, to acknowledge Hirak's grievances.

After the 1994 civil war, former president Ali Abdullah Saleh consistently overlooked the concerns of the South, as a form of revenge. There was talk of secession even then, and the movement gained momentum from 2007 to 2011, but was never unified enough to pose a real threat to Yemen's unity.

But now Hirak's fragmented leadership is a problem for national unity: if the factions cannot speak and act together, the dialogue will dissolve and chaos will follow.

Secession would not provide Hirak's divided factions with the independence they seek; rather, it would result in the creation of several weak regional regimes, in constant conflict with each other.

Yemen's government should have addressed legitimate southern concerns long ago. Now the issue will not be settled easily or quickly.

The present weak agreement among Hirak factions is the product of an interim alliance. The only thing uniting all of them is their common goal of secession, and their common enemy, the central government. Hirak members consider the South to be under occupation.

The southern proverb "he removes an onion, and grows garlic" refers to an apparent change that actually yields the same results. Southern power struggles have persisted through deceptive leadership changes, and this pattern is a good indicator of what the future would hold after secession.

The South has been divided since the days of the British occupation, which saw power struggles in Hadhramout, Abyan and Lahj. These internal rivalries continued after independence in 1967.

Over the next two decades, the South, as its own state, cycled through six presidents. Some transfers were peaceful while others were bloody, but all of them, while disguised as ideological or political, were driven by tribal politics and personal ambition.

In June 1969, a peaceful coup led to the removal of military leaders but also changed the regional balance of high-office-holders. And in January 1986, when internal "ideological" divisions occurred within Yemen's Socialist Party (YSP), several regions associated with the losing faction suffered losses; other regions gained influence based on their tribal loyalties.

These divisions still exist. Most current Hirak leaders were members of the YSP in the old southern People's Democratic Republic of Yemen. For these men the YSP served as a vehicle to power, and now Hirak does the same thing.

Personal conflicts still boil under the surface, damaging Hirak's leadership. No one in Hirak is capable of producing a transitional plan that can win wide support.

If secession occurs and the northern government is out of the way, a few southern leaders would opt for the creation of smaller political units, rather than consolidating the South.

Individuals such as the southern Islamist leader Tariq Al Fadhli would hope to restore their former reigns. For them, secession would be a golden opportunity.

Some within Hirak openly yearn for a return to "the old days", while others are still speaking in vague terms.

It is only a matter of time before individuals from powerful families claim authority based on their genealogy, especially if they manage to secede.

Beyond the old sultanates, there are some who would prefer a tribal emirate, another form of dynasty. And in the past few years, political Islam has gained momentum. Those who identify the most with their religious ideology are likely to demand the creation of Islamic caliphates or strict implementation of Islamic Shariah.

With a central government out of the picture, AQAP and Ansar Al Shariah could grip parts of the South.

The southern population is culturally diverse. New villages have sprung up, and older ones have expanded. Distinct identities do not exist anymore. But there are many who want distinct areas to control.

Taken together, all this means that after secession the South would have several inefficient micro-states, some of them strongly divided by prejudice and class distinctions.

Mr Hadi's government may still convince the remainder of southern Hirak to join the dialogue. Given the flexible nature of the talks, more seats can be assigned to other Hirak factions. But at the same time all elements of Hirak must consider their options and participate in the dialogue if they truly seek genuine "liberation".

For the South's sake, Hirak must submit to the dialogue and reach a settlement. The idea that secession will solve the South's problems is nothing but an illusion maintained by a few who seek power for themselves.

Secession would bring catastrophe. Participating in the national dialogue guarantees nothing, but it is the best alternative.




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Ben Omar & Al-Wartalani: Yemen's Revolutionary Architects

Ben Omar with Gen. Ali Muhsen
Image via Yemen Fox

Over night in 2011, Yemen had a new savior; the Moroccan Jamal Ben Omar, the UN Secretary General's Special Envoy to Yemen. He acted as a mediator to facilitate Yemen's peaceful transition and to establish the National Dialogue (ND) that is endorsed by Gulf Corporation Council (GCC). On March 18, Yemen held the Opening Ceremony of the ND as media sources continue to describe Yemen's transition as "unprecedented", the truth is, a similar, yet distinct, situation existed in 1948 in the North of Yemen. 

In 1947, Al-Fadheel Al-Wartalani, an Algerian, came to Yemen under the claim of launching a branch of an Egyptian ground transportation agency, but instead created the blueprint for a coup against Imam Yehya in 1948. He is not the only man from the Maghreb who traveled to Yemen in order to aid in the liberation of Yemenis from their dictator. Al-Wartalani and Ben Omar had roles that evolved from simple mediators to influential decision makers due to a vacuum in Yemeni leadership. 

Operating in Yemen 63 years apart, Ben Omar and Al-Wartalani, poles apart in their politics, have much in common. They are Yemen's revolutionary symbols who behaved on the surface as impartial outsiders. In reality, the were essential mediators and charismatic opportunists. 

Many Yemenis to this day are unaware that Al-Wartalani is a foreigner due to his popularity amongst the Muslim Brotherhood networks. He was sent to Yemen as an envoy by the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan Al Banna, to help launch a chapter in Yemen. Therefore, Al-Wartalani arrived to Yemen via Aden, networked and created strong alliances within the Imam's opposition and was a key participant in the Yemeni coup against him. 

Due to Al-Wartalani's charismatic personality, he was able to give various speeches at Mosques and schools. He began building alliances with influential Yemeni figures like Abdul Rahman Al Iryani, Zayid Al- Moushki, Ahmed Al-Shami, and Hussein Al Kebsi, to name a few. Al-Wartalani's advantage over other foreigners was his Arab ethnicity. The cultural similarity helped him understand Yemen's political circumstances better than the average spectator. 

Al-Wartalani deciphered Yemen's complex coalitions and discovered that Yemen's opposition was unorganized and lacked the presence of a visible leader.  Ironically, his second advantage is that he isn't Yemeni; he is not considered part of any of the clashing political factions in Yemen. Overtime, Al-Wartalani masterminded the National Charter (Al Mithaq Al Watani) and was able to unite Al-Zubairi and Noman with Al-Moushki and Al-Shami. 

Outside of Yemen, Al-Wartalani had contacts with the Saudi Monarchy and tried to gain the support of the Arab League (who never entirely supported him as much as they do with Ben Omar). Ultimately, he transformed himself, with the support of Yemenis, from an international actor to a national actor. 

Front row from the right: Hussein Ben Ali Al-Waisi, Al Fadheel Al Wartlani and Abdullah Al Iryani
Back row from left: Mohammed Al Emad, Mohiye AlDin Al 'Ansi, Ahmed Al Horesh, and Zayed Al Al-Moushki
Last row: Ahmed Abdo Nasher *

In Ahmed Ben Mohammed Al-Shami's Memories, Yemen's Winds of Change/Riyah Al-Taghyeer fee Al-Yaman, he expresses Al-Wartalani's importance in Yemen at that time: 

"In my opinion, the Algerian Jihadi Mr. Al-Fadheel Al Wartalani, is the one who changed the course of history in Yemen during the 4th Century when his feet landed on Yemen's Soil. As if he pressed on a button that turned the wheel of history into a new round of a new direction. The Revolution of 1948 is all Al-Wartalani's construction"

Al-Wartalani's Revolution in Yemen failed. As a consequence  Al-Wartalani and Co. were sentenced to death. While this sentence was carried out on Yemeni citizens, Al-Wartalani was able to flee and eventually settled in Lebanon. He never had to suffer the consequences. 

Yemenis naively welcome outsiders as they are not tainted with political motives like insiders. Outsiders who are looking for influence find in Yemen the ripe circumstances for political manipulation and personal transformation. It is not a secret that Yemen is a tribal and religious country with high rates of illiteracy. Sixty years passed, and Yemen remained almost the same. Tribal expert Nadwa Al-Dawsari explains that it is part of Yemen's culture to seek a "neutral" arbitrator, as we truly believe they are unprejudiced.  

Yemen's revolution of 2011 is the innovative equivalence of the 1948 revolution, in that Yemen is still a political play ground for external agents. Today the GCC and the UN Security Council is akin to 1948's Saudi Arabia and the Arab league. While Saudi Arabia and the Arab League decided to abandon Al-Wartalani's plans, it is unlikely that the GCC reassesses their support for Yemen's transition. 

On February 5,  in an interview to BBC News, Jamal Ben Omar stated 

"Its the first time that politics is being made by the people and not just from backroom deals between political elites". 

Ironically, in 2012, Rathiyah Al-Mutawakil and Majid Al-Mathhaji resigned from the technical committee of the National Dialogue because Ben Omar interfered with the committee's decision making process. He made a "backroom" deal with some members from the technical committee of the National Dialogue and other opposition political figures to decide the mechanisms needed for selecting the participants of the National Dialogue. Not only that, but he announced these decisions to the media himself, bypassing the authority of the technical committee. Journalist Jumanah Farhat questioned Ben Omar's intentions and accused him of arranging fragmentary meetings with controversial politicians. 

Currently, Yemeni politicians who are in opposition with each other agree to communicate solely through Ben Omar, giving him great leverage over Yemen. A recent statement by the president of the Security Council warned Ali Saleh (Former President) and Ali Al-Beedh (Former Vice President and current Southern Hirak leader) of interfering in Yemen's transition. While the Security Council called out spoilers, it displayed favoritism towards those who were not called out, like Ali Muhsen and Hameed Al-Ahmar. Not only that; several confidential sources suspect that Ben Omar will continue to function as Yemen's main leader as long as he continues to manage the entire political process. 

Prior to becoming Yemen's revolutionary protagonists, both, Al-Wartalani and Ben Omar, had a murky past. Both were considered extremists; however on the other end of the spectrum, Al-Wartalani was a conservative (extreme right) and Ben Omar is a liberal (extreme left). Throughout their lives, they struggled with success in their own countries but found glory in Yemen. 

On a final and separate note, activist Atiaf Al-Wazir posted on her facebook that "no one will solve Yemen's problems but the Yemenis themselves". For Yemen's revolution to succeed, it needs to be respected as a grassroots evolution, otherwise we may find ourselves sixty years from now, looking for a new foreign hero. 



*N.d. Photograph. Hajr Al 'lim Wa Ma'aqileh Fee Al Yemen. By Ismail Ben Ali Al-Akwaa. Vol. 4. Lebanon: Dar Al Fikr, 1995. 2397. Print.